Use case · Forecast movement
Explaining why the forecast moved this period
“It was £18.4m last month and it’s £18.9m now — why?” is the hardest question at a project review, not because the answer is complicated but because the workings that produced last month’s number have usually been overwritten.
Foras retains the figures recorded at freeze, records the reason behind each adjustment, and holds budget change separately from cost change, so each input behind the movement can be checked.
Forecast cycle · Aug 2026
CTD basis frozen · Demo data
| Measure | At freeze | After revision |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted CTD basisHeld | £11.964m | £11.964m |
| Forecast cost to complete | £6.941m | £6.720m |
| Forecast final cost | £18.905m | £18.684m |
Why this is hard
A single number hides four different kinds of change
Forecast final cost is a summary. When it moves, the movement can come from the budget it is measured against, from cost that has been captured since, from an adjustment made during reconciliation, or from someone re-estimating the work that remains. Those are four very different conversations.
In a spreadsheet they are indistinguishable, because the file is overwritten each month. The previous version exists as a copy somewhere, but reconstructing which cell changed and why is an afternoon’s work that nobody has time for during a review.
The practical consequence is that forecast movement gets explained by narrative rather than by data — and narrative is exactly what a board challenges.
Budget out of sync — £320,000 not reflected in the forecast
3 budget lines have no forecast line. Approved Budget should always match the budget plus approved variations. Refresh to reconcile.
Actual Foras interface pattern. Counts and amounts are illustrative demo data.
What actually moves the number
Four drivers, kept apart
Foras holds these as separate inputs, so each can be checked on the record rather than recalled from memory.
The approved budget changed
An approved variation increased the approved budget. The forecast variance moves even though nothing about the cost of the work changed.
Cost to date changed
More cost was captured, or cost was captured for work done in an earlier period. Adjusted cost to date rises and the remaining work is measured against a different starting point.
A reconciliation adjustment was recorded
A difference against Finance was resolved with an adjustment. Adjusted cost to date changes, and so does everything built on it.
A forecast line was re-estimated
Quantity, rate or utilisation on a cost line was revised. This is the only driver that is genuinely a change of view rather than a change of fact.
How Foras handles it
The workings are kept, not rebuilt
The figures recorded at freeze are retained
Foras retains the figures recorded at freeze, so the current period can be compared against that recorded point rather than against a file that has moved on.
Budget drift is surfaced, not silent
When the budget has moved and the forecast has not yet taken it up, Foras shows the difference and the amount involved, with an explicit Refresh from Budget action.
Adjustments carry a reason
Every reconciliation decision records a reason and an author. The audit trail is where the answer to “why did this change?” actually lives.
The inputs are held separately
Approved budget, captured cost, adjustments and forecast estimates are kept as separate inputs, so each can be inspected on its own instead of only the net figure being visible.
Foras does not predict movement or model outcomes. It records what changed, who changed it and why, so the explanation is retrieved rather than reconstructed.
Position decision history
Aug 2026 · Demo data
311 Shoring · WBS 02.10 Retaining Walls
Match Finance- Captured TD
- £812,400
- Finance TD
- £927,400
- Difference TD
- −£115,000
- Adjustment
- +£115,000
- Adjusted CTD
- £927,400
Decided by Commercial Manager · 28 Aug 2026
150 Project Management
Timing- Captured TD
- £1,842,300
- Finance TD
- £1,781,900
- Difference TD
- £60,400
- Adjustment
- No adjustment
- Adjusted CTD
- £1,842,300
Decided by Commercial Manager · 28 Aug 2026
Actual Foras interface pattern. Entries are illustrative demo data from the Northgate Logistics Park demo project.
What changes in practice
At the next project review
The question “why has it moved?” becomes answerable in the meeting rather than in a follow-up. Each input can be checked in turn — the approved budget, adjusted cost to date, the adjustments recorded during reconciliation, and any forecast lines that were re-estimated.
Where a budget change has not yet been taken into the forecast, that is visible as a stated difference with an explicit action to take it up, rather than as an inconsistency somebody notices later.
And because the figures recorded at freeze are retained, this month’s comparison is against what was actually reported last month — not against a file that has moved on since.
Related capabilities
Bring two consecutive months of forecast
We’ll show how each of those inputs is recorded in Foras — budget, captured cost, adjustments and re-estimated lines — and where the change shows.
Who this matters to